The napkin
In Texas — with our property taxes and insurance included — every $850 a month of housing payment supports roughly $100,000 of house. Paying $1,700 in rent? That's the payment on roughly a $200,000 purchase. Paying $2,550? Roughly $300,000. It's arithmetic, not advice, and it's the fastest way to know whether the question is even live for you.
Why the line moved
Corridor builders are currently advertising financed rates well below the resale market — often paired with closing-cost credits that shrink the cash you need at the table. A buydown in the high 4s instead of a market rate in the low-to-mid 6s changes the monthly payment on the same house by hundreds of dollars. That's why some corridor renters who ran this math two years ago and said "not yet" would get a different answer today. The Builder Ledger tracks what's being advertised and — just as important — the conditions attached.
When renting still wins
Honestly, often. You're in your first year at a new employer and the role might move. You haven't picked a school district yet — and here, the district question is genuinely tricky. You'd drain your entire reserve to close. Renting while you learn the corridor is not a failure state; it's frequently the smart sequence. The point of the napkin is to make it a decision instead of a default.
Payment arithmetic is educational only — rates, taxes, and insurance vary by property and borrower; verify everything with your own lender and tax figures. Compiled August 2026.
Renewal season shouldn't ambush you.
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